Last week as the situation in the Crimea deteriorated I spoke on the phone to the Ukrainian defence minister.
This conflict is live and potentially very nasty indeed.
The world now waits on Mr Putin but already he’s set his country back years. Russia has re-entered the pariah zone.
His next move? Perhaps engineering an ‘insult’ to Russian speakers in an obscure corner of Europe so he can elbow in.
Never mind the lack of credible threats to those he defines as Russians.
But even if they existed, what right has Moscow to discommode states that are sovereign in our international rules-based system?
And even if Putin’s self appointment as patron of ethno-linguistic Russians was acceptable, convincing interventions would be civil, the tools for which his powerful nation has in abundance.
It’s said the Kremlin wants its USSR back. But, like our own, the Russian empire is history, except, it seems, in Putin’s head. Paradoxically his acquisitiveness will haemorrhage leverage since, if Germany has any sense, she will now be decoupling from Russian energy – fast.
Georgia 2008 and Ukraine 2014 are bad enough, but pray God Europe’s disturber of the peace understands the implications of Article V should he attack a NATO member.
What does Putin’s aggression mean for us?
Well, we remain the world’s fourth biggest spenders on defence and its sixth largest economy.
The latter will change as emerging economies climb but today’s big players like the UK and France should keep up their guard and press Europeans who are still overly reliant on us to be alive to the danger presented by Russia’s current leadership. But the process of bringing our troops back home from the Rhine should not be halted as some, respected, Cold War warriors have been briefing.
The answer lies with Germany and its circle providing more for their own defence. Chancellor Merkel’s response to this crisis is crucial.
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